Guyana could face hotter temperatures, prolonged dry spells, water shortages and an increased risk of wildfires later this year as El Niño conditions are expected to develop within the next two to four months, according to the Hydrometeorological Service of the Ministry of Agriculture.
In its latest seasonal outlook, the Hydrometeorological Service said current observations show that sea surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean are nearing the El Niño threshold, with climate models indicating an approximately 90 per cent chance of the phenomenon developing in the coming months.
El Niño is a large-scale climate pattern that is typically associated with drier-than-normal conditions and increased heat across Guyana, particularly during the second half of the year. Its effects are expected to become more noticeable from July and continue through the remainder of 2026, with the most intense heat likely between mid-August and October.
While most regions are forecast to experience near to below normal rainfall between May and July, forecasters warned that periods of heavy rainfall and localized flooding could still occur, especially in low-lying and poorly drained communities.
Northern parts of Region One may experience slightly above normal rainfall during the period.
The Hydrometeorological Service noted that drier conditions are expected to intensify between August and December, particularly during the main dry season from August to mid-November.
The outlook warns that prolonged dry spells, rising temperatures and declining soil moisture could place pressure on water resources, especially in inland regions. Regions Eight and Nine could begin experiencing short-term drought conditions as early as the end of July.
Authorities are urging residents and businesses to begin practicing water conservation measures ahead of the anticipated dry conditions.
The expected heat and dry weather are also likely to increase the risk of heat waves and heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly and outdoor workers.
Livestock and wildlife could also face added stress from rising temperatures and reduced water availability.
The agriculture sector is expected to face challenges from lower soil moisture and extended dry periods, which could disrupt planting schedules, reduce crop yields and affect rain-fed farming operations. Reduced pasture availability and water shortages could also negatively impact livestock production.
Additionally, officials warned that the combination of intense heat and dry vegetation will significantly increase the risk of wildfires, particularly in forested and savannah regions including Regions Six, Eight, Nine and Ten.
However, the Hydrometeorological Service cautioned that wildfire activity could occur across all regions if dry conditions persist for extended periods.
The agency said the seasonal outlook is updated monthly and encouraged the public to monitor daily weather forecasts and advisories issued by the National Weather Watch Centre as conditions continue to evolve.
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